Employing (Home) Organisation: Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire (CSRS)
Project title: An age-structured stochastic model to predict the Ebola male survivor population dynamics and their influence on future outbreaks
Dr Lokonon has completed a PhD in Biostatistics at the University of Abomey-Calavi in Benin in 2020. Since 2023, he had a Postdoctoral position at the Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire, where he has a mixed research and teaching role. His research focusses on the use of statistical and mathematical models to (i) assess the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19 and Ebola, and (ii) analyze the impacts of control measures (vaccination, treatments, NPIs, etc.) on the dynamic of the diseases.
Summary of Project Destination
Ebola disease is one of the most important zoonotic viral diseases in Africa, with a high mortality rate in humans ranging from 60-90%. Since 1976, about 40 outbreaks have been recorded. In addition, more than 70% of recorded recrudescent events in West Africa after 2014-2016 epidemic have resulted from male-female sexual transmission via seminal fluids. All male survivors from Ebola are potential “convalescents” susceptible to transmit the disease. However, the survivor population is incredibly understudied, and it is not clear how survivors recrudesce. I aim to fill this gap by developing an age-structured stochastic model to analyse the dynamics of the Ebola male survivor population, and their potential role in determining future Ebola outbreaks. The finding from this fellowship will be relevant to studying other outbreaks beyond Ebola in Africa and globally.
Summary of Fellowship Plan
During the fellowship, Dr Lokonon will be working with Professor Daniel Haydon at the University of Glasgow. He will be actively involved in ongoing research programs, particularly those focused on disease modelling. He will develop research capacity in advanced analytical tools, such as epidemiological modelling and Artificial Intelligence to forecast disease outbreaks with relevant precision, and to deepen understanding of their dynamics. The skills acquired will be used to strengthen disease modelling capacity at his home institution.
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“The development of strong disease modelling expertise is important in Africa for better management of health challenges through early warning of diseases outbreaks, surveillance, preparedness, prevention, and disease control.”
Dr. Lokonon expects to start his fellowship in October 2025