Employing (Home) Organisation: Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme (MLW)
Project title: Using advanced dynamic modelling to inform disease control strategies in Africa
I am a Postdoctoral Associate at the MLW Programme with interests in developing and applying quantitative methods to address global health challenges, particularly in Africa. I hold a PhD in Epidemiology and Population Health from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), a MSc in Epidemiology from LSHTM, and a BSc in Computer Sciences and Mathematics from the University of Malawi. I have interests in disease dynamics and vaccine epidemiology, inspired by outbreaks/persistence of vaccine-preventable diseases.
Summary of Project Destination
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) effectively reduce vaccine-targeted serotype (VT) carriage and invasive disease (IPD). However, despite using infant-PCV13 in Malawi since 2011 at 6, 10, 14 weeks-old, VT persist along with non-VT. A high-cost clinical trial comparing this base schedule with new schedule (6, 10 weeks-old, 9 months-old) has not yielded carriage reduction in infants/HIV-infected adults. Using Bayesian dynamic modelling, I will (a) estimate the contribution of age/HIV to family/community carriage transmission, (b) simulate infant-PCV strategies that are predicted to maximise carriage/IPD reduction in HIV-infected adults, and (c) compare cost-effectiveness of simulated infant-PCV strategies. Model-based IPD predictions will inform an economic model. These studies will help to identify key pneumococcal transmission directionality and optimal PCV strategies that further reduce IPD.
Summary of Fellowship Plan
I will be placed at the University of Bristol, working with Dr Unwin (and Professor Jambo at MLW). I will gain Bayesian skills in fitting dynamic models to data and infer parameters necessary for simulating intervention policy recommendations. My Institution, MLW, will provide resources including computational, desk space and salary to ensure that I finalise the project goals after placemen, and to conduct a workshop in disease modelling as a way of promoting modelling uptake in Malawi.
Quote
“My placement at the University of Bristol will deepen my understanding of probabilistic programming for disease dynamic models and uncertainty inference necessary for intervention policy analysis. “
Proposed start date of the Fellowship is October 2026